The Black Swan (Nassim Nicholas Taleb)

The Black Swan (Nassim Nicholas Taleb)
- Highlight Loc. 3027-30  | Added on Wednesday, October 26, 2011, 07:54 PM

focusing. To be able to focus is a great virtue if you are a watch repairman, a brain surgeon, or a chess player. But the last thing you need to do when you deal with uncertainty is to “focus” (you should tell uncertainty to focus, not us). This “focus” makes you a sucker; it translates into prediction problems, as we will see in the next section. Prediction, not narration, is the real test of our understanding of the world.